Steel stocks continue to fall under trade sticks
After a week of brewing, the United States finally knocked down its trade stick for the steel and aluminum industry.
U.S. time March 8, 2018, U.S. President Trump signed an order that imports of steel and aluminum products threaten U.S. national security, the decision will be a comprehensive tax on imports of steel and aluminum products, the tax rate of 25% and 10% respectively, which temporarily excludes Canadian and Mexican products. Previously, Trump has on March 1 on the policy trend of the public stance.
The move sparked the European Union's announcement on March 6 that it would extend anti-dumping duties on stainless steel tubes to China for 5 years, continuing to impose tariffs of 48.3% to 71.9% per cent on China's products, effective from March 7. For Trump's practice, the Ministry of Commerce Trade Relief Investigation Bureau Director Wang He Jun immediately issued a talk, that the U.S. side measure is in the name of national security, trade protection of the real.
China will urge the US side to respect the authority of the multilateral trading system and withdraw the relevant measures as soon as possible.
Affected by the above news, March 9 A A-share steel plate again led the market, futures markets black goods also fell sharply. By the end of the afternoon, wind CITIC level steel plate fell 1.51%, nearly 5th, the cumulative decline of 2.36%. China Ling Steel fell 9.42%, Chongqing Steel fell 3.49%.
Nearly five trading days, hualing Steel has fallen 14.31%, Army Day Steel fell 7.91%, three steel min light also fell 7.7%.
The main futures market contracts, iron ore plunged 5.2%, Coke tumbled 4.68%, rebar down 3.74%, hot roll down 3.33%, coking coal also fell more than 3%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.02%.
Europe and the United States to impose high import tariffs on steel industry, will be the formation of domestic steel export trade impact? Zeng Jieshe, Ou's chief analyst, said in an interview with the Securities Times E company that the EU's imports of seamless steel tubes in China were limited, and that China's steel exports to the United States were only more than 1 million tonnes a year, with limited direct impact.
But the action of the EU and US government, or will trigger the rise of protectionism in other countries, and then make a crackdown on China's steel industry exports, the indirect impact will be more obvious.
Steel price internal and internal, "gold three not Gold" After the Spring Festival in 2018, the domestic steel market in a brief rise, quickly stepped into a downward channel. Steel futures fell in early Monday this week, despite a resistance adjustment in Tuesday, which continued to fall sharply in the next two days. Thursday, rebar and hot roll main contract prices fell 3.68% and 2.93% respectively than the previous session.
The spot market also has the same pace as the futures market. According to the gold data, since mid-February, the national average price shock of the strip market lower, current 4086 yuan/ton, February the highest price of 4143 yuan/ton, the difference of 57 yuan/ton.
Although prices rebounded slightly in early March, the rally was hard to move, and the price was much more resistant. "Recent changes in the international environment and domestic policies have led to a deterioration in the market mentality and have become an external factor driving down steel prices," he said. And from the inside, the domestic steel market this spring also has a situation of poor supply and demand fundamentals. "Zeng Jieshe Introduction, after the Spring Festival steel inventory continued to increase, creating a new high of nearly three years." Data released by several agencies or websites this week showed that inventory growth did not slow. According to statistics, the number of steel social inventory has reached more than 18 million tons this week, according to this growth rate, will soon reach 20 million tons of scale. And in terms of terminal demand, due to weather reasons, infrastructure and engineering projects have not yet entered the start-up phase, the demand has not yet been released.
It is understood that due to the impact of the policy, the steel trade, downstream enterprises are very tight funds, many projects by the impact of the PPP project audit, do not dare to start.
According to the gold statistics, March 1, Guangzhou stock has reached 2.2 million tons, has not yet unloaded and statistics of about 30.5 million tons, in accordance with the relatively good season in previous years to calculate, a week about 20.3 million tons of digestion, at least three months without any supply replenishment, to return to normal inventory levels. Analyst Deming also said, look forward to the "golden three" seems to be unsatisfactory, because of the Spring Festival before and after the steel mills and market optimistic outlook, steel production, active traders to store goods, and after the demand surface has not reached the expected effect. Although at the end of February in the hype pushed steel prices appear a wave of rally, but still can not avoid the embarrassing situation of steel market today. The current market speculation and weak tone coexist, taking into account the domestic economic downward pressure is still large, high inventory, low demand on the steel market pull up a certain inhibition, steel city will inevitably shock.
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